Jim Ruymen/UPI
RECORD PREDICTIONS
1: Denver Nuggets (60-22)
2: Los Angeles Lakers (58-24)
3: LA Clippers (56-26)
4: Houston Rockets (51-31)
5: Utah Jazz (50-32)
6: Portland Trail Blazers (49-33)
7: Golden State Warriors (48-34)
8: San Antonio Spurs (46-36)
9: Sacramento Kings (44-38)
10: New Orleans Pelicans (42-40)
11: Dallas Mavericks (41-41)
12: Oklahoma City Thunder (40-42)
13: Minnesota Timberwolves (39-43)
14: Memphis Grizzlies (30-52)
15: Phoenix Suns (28-54)
#8: San Antonio Spurs (46-36)
Key Additions: DeMarre Carroll, Trey Lyles, Luka Samanic (#19, NBA Draft)
Key Losses: Davis Bertans (WAS)
Mark Sobhani/Getty Images
The Spurs will just never go away, will they?
Although it's been a fairly quiet few years since the official end of the Duncan-Ginobili-Parker era of San Antonio basketball, the Spurs have survived in a respectable manner amongst the recent Western Conference juggernauts.
And while the roster stayed fairly stagnant during this summer's craziness, they are likely to remain a formidable factor in the Western playoff hunt - in typical Spurs fashion.
Following the messy Kawhi Leonard debacle, the Spurs managed to hold onto two midrange-shot-loving All-Stars - albeit in their later years.
And while last season was an underachieving one for San Antonio, the upcoming one holds the potential to unleash the true firepower of a modern Spurs offense. Adding young rookie shooters in Keldon Johnson and Luka Samanic to pair with DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge appears to be the way to go if their offensive schemes are to be successfully expanded upon.
In addition to the return of young defensive standout Dejounte Murray and the hopeful offensive ascension of both Bryn Forbes and Derrick White, this team truly has the potential to develop ideally blended offensive styles as part of their collection of assets.
It's tough to label the Spurs contenders in their current state, but it's never smart to doubt the consistent prowess of a Hall of Fame coach in Gregg Popovich (and adding the greatest Spur of all-time to the sideline as an assistant helps some, too).
#7: Golden State Warriors (48-34)
Key Additions: D'Angelo Russell (BKN), Willie Cauley-Stein, Glenn Robinson III, Alec Burks
Key Losses: Kevin Durant (BKN), Andre Igoudala (MEM), DeMarcus Cousins (LAL), Quinn Cook (LAL), Shaun Livingston (retired)
Michael Reaves/Getty Images
The Golden State Warriors succeeded in cementing their legacy in the basketball pantheon of all-time great dynasties. Four straight trips to the NBA Finals; two of those won back-to-back with perhaps the best on-paper roster that the league has ever seen.
Regardless of the hate, hats off to them for creating some of the most entertaining basketball ever.
But, everything comes to an end, and it appears that the Warriors dynasty has reached that point. However, that doesn't mean, in the slightest, that we've seen the last of the Warriors coming out on top of the fight.
And with perhaps the most single surprising move of this offseason, the Warriors managed to acquire a 23-year-old All-Star in D'Angelo Russell in a sign-and-trade with Brooklyn that landed Russell a 4-year, $117 million max contract.
There's no doubt that Russell is certainly one of the most talented young offensive stars in the league, but it's fair to be dubious about his fit with the Warriors and his potential impact to the team.
Russell's largest and most successful impact on a young Brooklyn Nets team came alongside his relatively high usage rate where he played the role of primary ball handler in pick-and-roll sets. With the Warriors' fast-paced drive-and-kick offense that launched the Warriors into box office success, it's easy to wonder how Russell fits into that equation, especially beyond next season once Klay Thompson returns to full health.
Still, D'Angelo is a talented shooter and can fit seamlessly into their offense if relegated to a spot up shooter, or utilized in a sixth man role when Steph and Klay take a breather. The Warriors insist that they did not acquire Russell only to trade him subsequently down the road, (they can legally trade him as of January 6), or solely as a compensation piece for losing KD.
It's likely that the team will evaluate the placement of Russell's skills alongside his backcourt mate before pulling the plug on an experiment that provides the Warriors with some youth and future. Even if that fit isn't so smooth, former league MVP and transcendent superstar Stephen Curry remains in Oakland - sorry, San Francisco - alongside Draymond Green, his perfect complementary piece.
The Raptors exhibited a near-perfect defense to contain Curry, but it's safe to say that the rest of the league won't be able to consistently hold down those same techniques. But we've seen what Steph can do on his own at the pinnacle of a heat check, and man, it's definitely something to be excited for.
#6: Portland Trail Blazers (49-33)
Key Additions: Hassan Whiteside (MIA), Kent Bazemore (ATL), Nassir Little (#25, NBA Draft), Pau Gasol, Anthony Tolliver
Key Losses: Al-Farouq Aminu (ORL), Enes Kanter (BOS), Maurice Harkless (LAC), Seth Curry (DAL), Meyers Leonard (MIA), Evan Turner (ATL)
Sean Meagher/The Oregonian via AP
In the process of watching a considerably dull Western Conference playoffs, Dame Time kept me on my feet.
The consummate blend of ruthless brashness and stoic vigor from Damian Lillard yielded some "stop-whatever-you're-doing-and-turn-on-the-game" moments out of PDX. Dame has had a fair share of game winners in his career, but something about his temperament in the series against the OKC Thunder was something. . . different. There's something so cool and composed about his demeanor that we haven't seen since the likes of Kobe. He's completely calm, but not robotic. He's cocky enough to irk your best player in getting technicals, but not enough to draw a technical himself. And through the duration of the OKC series, that same philosophy was consistently implemented until climaxing with THE MOST DISRESPECTFUL DAGGER I HAVE EVER SEEN (1,000,000 bonus points for the wave - I really cannot imagine that shot without it's inclusion; and seeing how the offseason unfolded for OKC, that wave really carries an even more callous meaning, now).
His haughtiness is his best and most entertaining quality, but it never seems to come back and bite him in the ass. I've really never seen anything like it.
As for the current shape of the Blazers' roster, the positional ideology remains the same - only with a new haul of players. In light of Jusuf Nurkic's brutal leg injury, the Blazers stockpiled frontcourt assets that will come in handy until his return.
It's safe to assume that Hassan Whiteside is a temporary replacement for Nurkic and will be later moved for another core piece - perhaps some more wing depth - but that's not to say he can't be valuable on this team for the time being. Whiteside enters the rotation as a pick and roll partner for both McCollum and Lillard, something the Blazers haven't seen on an elite level in the Dame era (not that Whiteside is exactly elite at the center position, but it's the closest they've gotten).
Kent Bazemore and rookie Nassir Little step in as the wing rotation replacements for Harkless and Aminu - a consensus downgrade. They're likely to serve in the same
three-and-D roles alongside a returning Rodney Hood, but their inconsistencies on offense in comparison to their predecessors make for some worrisome stretches when Dame and C.J. are either sitting or cold. With the additional loss of spark plugs Seth Curry and Meyers Leonard, it's ultimately clear that the Blazers' bench lost some momentum on both sides of the floor.
Still, Lillard are McCollum still remain one of the top three most lethal backcourts in the league, as evident from their Western Conference Finals appearance last season - the pair's deepest playoff run yet. Let's not forget that when Lillard went cold, McCollum single-handedly put a favorited Nuggets team to bed.
If the star backcourt continues to mesh or even expands their ceiling - the Blazers could be headed towards the same pattern of success seen this past year - and perhaps with greater heights.
#5: Utah Jazz (50-32)
Key Additions: Mike Conley (MEM), Bojan Bogdanovic, Ed Davis, Jeff Green, Emmanuel Mudiay
Key Losses: Derrick Favors (NOP), Ricky Rubio (PHX), Jae Crowder (MEM), Kyle Korver (MIL), Ekpe Udoh (Overseas)
Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Fun fact: Any member of the Utah Jazz is not, by any means, permitted to wear a headband during a game at any point in the regular season or playoffs (something about team unity or togetherness, blah blah blah...). Short of Jinglin' Joe Ingles finessing the system somehow after cutting his head open last season, there are absolutely no exceptions. Thought that was important to get out of the way.
Excluding headwear parameters, is it possible for a team be so underrated that they're overrated? Because it seems the Utah Jazz have entered that tier on this spectrum with their quiet, yet dominant sprawl of offseason adjustments.
I have the Jazz at #5 in these rankings, but it really would not surprise me if this team finished in one of the top two spots come May of next year. It's been hastily overstated, but this team is deep. DEEEEEEEEEP.
With quite possibly the best spacing in their starting lineup, rolling out a five-man squad of Conley, Mitchell, Ingles, Bogdanovic, and Gobert, they are also an elite defensive team. It's very likely that the Jazz are able to most successfully match up with several of the star-heavy teams formulated this summer because of their versatility. And they now have a clear-cut team leader on the squad in Mike Conley Jr.
Another fun fact: Mike Conley has never received a technical foul in his entire 12 years of playing professional basketball.
But is there truly a more perfect match than Conley and the current Jazz? I think people are forgetting that Mike Conley is an elite point guard on both ends of the floor, and essentially fills the precise hole that Utah was needing to take them to the next level. Conley provides more spacing in the offense than Rubio could have dreamed of doing, and offers great perimeter defense alongside Mitchell, while also taking a chunk of the scoring load off of him. Conley is the perfect team player and could essentially help elevate Mitchell to an even higher level than what we've already seen from him. But at the very least, maybe Conley can draw that one elusive tech to provide the Jazz with some edge.
And as for the headband rule, Conley, known for sporting a headband for a large portion of his career, appears to put team before headgear.
#4: Houston Rockets (51-31)
Key Additions: Russell Westbrook (OKC), Tyson Chandler, Anthony Bennett?
Key Losses: Chris Paul (OKC)
Bill Baptist/NBAE via Getty Images
Brodie and the Beard reunited: absolutely dangerous chaos, potentially for the opposition and the team itself.
The last time these two donned the same threads was when Westbrook comfortably accepted the position of secondary scorer with Harden being the featured bench player. It's safe to say that it will not be that way this time around.
Since then, both Harden and Westbrook have established themselves as all-time great scorers, both registering historic all-time scoring average seasons and respectively earning themselves an MVP. They also both managed to lead the league in assists in multiple seasons since disbanding. It's essentially indisputable that they are two of the most talented players in the league, regardless of their polarizing perception.
Westbrook's 2016-17 season and Harden's 2018-19 both sit atop the all-time ranking for usage percentage in a single season. As for last season alone, Harden ranked first (39.6%), while Westbrook closed out the top 15 at 30.1%.
Even when ignoring advanced stats, the eye test yields a mixed projection as to how this offense might function. While their listed positions say otherwise, Harden's savvy ability to create shots for others and run the pick and roll emulates the modern elite point guard, even more so than Westbrook, an elite assist-getter in his own right. And while Harden's scoring ability is generational, Westbrook's relentless slashing skills and mid-range pull-up game is characteristic of a primary option. However, emphasizing off-ball movement is key in assuring a relatively smooth transition. And that may be difficult at first. But if both Westbrook and Harden learn to be just as effective without the ball in their hands at all times, this could work!
Assuming that Westbrook and Harden have a significantly-less tense relationship than Harden and CP3 reportedly had over the span of their two years together, they could be scary in a super fast-paced and freestyle Mike D'Antoni offense. The presence of the two former MVPs will reduce the amount of touches for the remaining Rockets role players. But retaining Clint Capela, Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker, and Danuel House, among others, is important depth to improve on. If harmonious coexistence is priority throughout the roster, then sustaining the Rockets' notorious spark of aggression will be successful.
#3: LA Clippers (56-26)
Key Additions: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George (OKC), Maurice Harkless (POR), Mfiondu Kabengele (#27, NBA Draft)
Key Losses: Danilo Gallinari (OKC), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC), Wilson Chandler (BKN), Garrett Temple (BKN)
Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
"Let the past die. Kill it if you have to." This eloquent Kylo Ren quote effectively sums up the current LA Clipper mindset. The present is the only area of focus for a franchise defined by irrelevancy. Attaining two top-ten players, one of whom is possibly at the very top of that list, has made that philosophy possible.
For 35 years, the Clippers existed as the laughingstock little brother in the shadow of the mighty Lakers. The franchise is yet to witness a Conference Finals appearance. They are the team with the second lowest all-time win-loss record percentage in NBA history. Since their relocation to L.A. in 1984, the status of being a Clippers fan has required a special personality that is able to ignore the plights of forgetful mediocrity.
And with a turbulent past, the Clippers won't look to build through the draft anytime soon, having loaded off a record number of first-round draft picks in exchange for perennial All-Star Paul George. But the short-term future is salvageable, considering the Clippers potentially carry the most stacked team in the entire league.
Two-time NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard led the Toronto Raptors to their first championship after completing the franchise's best regular season. After introducing defeat to the mighty Warriors dynasty, Leonard exited the 2018-19 campaign as the league's most dominant two-way superstar.
Now, there are certainly some doubts about being top heavy, especially if load management strikes at the wrong times.
Last season was a major success for "Board Man," but it might have not gone the same route if not for some mid-season hibernation. Leonard sat out 22 games due to "load management" - a fancy term for rest taken as a precautionary step to avoid overexertion and injury. After sitting nearly the entire season before demanding a trade from San Antonio due to a lingering calf issue, the Raptors weren't taking their chances - and it paid off. But now, Kawhi is back home suiting up for Paul George's favorite childhood team.
Let's also not forget that George is coming off of a double-shoulder procedure, and it's normal to question if he returns with the same level of shooting. Otherwise, he is coming off the best season of his career - and comes to the Clippers as perhaps the second best defensive player in the league - behind maybe only Leonard.
But this team doesn't rest on their laurels of this past summer. Featuring Patrick Beverley, Montrezl Harrell, Landry Shamet, and Lou Williams, the 2019 Clippers overachieved through dedicated, scrappy hustle and radiant passion. Coming off of a stealthily impressive showing against Golden State in the first-round, the Clippers battled hard in their most successful outing since the legend of Lob City.
If Coach Doc Rivers maximizes the talent on his roster, we could be looking at one of the best defenses of all-time. At the very least, we're prepared to witness the most historic season in LA Clippers lore, regardless of how low that bar stands.
#2: Los Angeles Lakers (58-24)
Key Additions: Anthony Davis (NOP), DeMarcus Cousins, Danny Green, Dwight Howard, Avery Bradley, Quinn Cook, Jared Dudley, Troy Daniels, Frank Vogel (Coach)
Key Losses: Brandon Ingram (NOP), Lonzo Ball (NOP), Josh Hart (NOP), Reggie Bullock (NYK), Luke Walton (Coach)
Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
As a lifelong Lakers fan, I'm gonna try and remain as completely impartial as I possibly can, and ignore the fact that I've began writing this little column in complete anticipation of previewing the Lakers at the #2 spot in the West.
I suppose it's fair to say that my overarching bias beamed through the smoke in my Clippers preview, considering that I began their section with an overemphasis on their bleak, bleak history.
But, you know what? Excluding the 2018 signing of LeBron James to a 4 year, $154 million contract, the franchise's first superstar since the pre-Achilles Kobe Bean Bryant, the Lakers have been anything but relevant this decade.
Since their most recent glory days of 2010, lackluster offseasons closed any gleam of playoff aspirations. Coexisting with Kobe Bryant's farewell tour, the expertise of Xavier Henry, Jordan Hill, and "Swaggy P" Nick Young fulfilled expectations that gradually dipped lower and lower each year, as the Lakers consecutively endured four of the franchise's worst all-time seasons between 2014 and 2017.
Any glimmer of excitement during this period came from the collectivity of Laker fans turning their heads and hearts to a vastly talented, but inexperienced bunch of electrifying youngsters. Defined by their quickly-established off-court brand, high-flying play, and exuberant talk of lofty potential, they provided a spark of hope in L.A. for several years, but have since been traded in packages leading up to the acquisition of Anthony Davis in June.
Davis brings a dominant two-way repertoire that Laker fans haven't witnessed from a big man since Shaq "Daddy" held down the paint in the early 2000's (no disrespect to Pau Gasol - he brought the Lakers two titles through his intuitive craftiness and finesse, rather than any raw, unabashed power). Amazingly, Anthony Davis accomplishes a blend of both big man identities. In his ability to step through and yam it on your best player, step out and efficiently knock down contested jumpers from outside the arc, and utilize artful jab-and-go stutter-step post moves, the ideal modern NBA four/five rests in the talents of the Lakers' newest superstar.
The recent years of misery appear to be in the rearview for the Purple and Gold, as management galvanized their competence by filling out the roster with a solid mix of veterans surrounding Davis and James, crafted with an emphasis on floor spacing and spot-up shooting versatility.
As if we didn't receive enough Bleacher Report notifications alerting season-ending injuries - DeMarcus Cousins sustained a torn ACL during a practice session in Las Vegas - leaving the Lakers without the starting center they envisioned in the front-court.
The Lakers will certainly have to fill that gap before the regular season kicks off (???), but with a generational talent like Anthony Davis in the front line with a high-flying JaVale McGee, there shouldn't be too much to worry about. Still, Boogie's talent and swagger are to be immensely missed at the LakeShow.
And with recent injury concerns of their own, expect the Lakers to also fall victim to some mid-season "load management," which holds the potential to significantly alter their season win-total, especially considering that their toughest stretch lies right around the All-Star break.
But if there's one certainty from this summer, the Lakers' identity finally came to fruition. The team has finally broken aimless limbo with genuine championship aspirations for the remainder of LeBron's contract - and perhaps afterwards, assuming that Davis and young offensive star Kyle Kuzma are retained well into the future.
If that's not exciting enough, LeBron James enters this season with an entire summer of full rest. He has never missed the NBA playoffs excluding his rookie season, until last year. He has never battled rehabilitation from a major injury, until last year. He has never been turned down by a fellow superstar to join forces, until this year.
King James is pissed. He's ready to explode. And he's doing so with the best teammate he's ever played with.
Let the battle of Los Angeles commence.
#1: Denver Nuggets (60-22)
Key Additions: Jerami Grant (OKC), Michael Porter Jr. (Injury), Bol Bol (#44, NBA Draft)
Key Losses: Trey Lyles (SAS), Isaiah Thomas (WAS)
Bart Young/Getty Images
Alas, we've reached the top of the mountain. "The Nuggets?" You ask. "But they didn't do anything!" You exclaim in sheer confusion. "They don't have a super-duo, they're not LA or Houston, do they even have a star?" You ask again, as you question your entire sense of existence wondering about the nuances of a professional basketball team in Denver, Colorado.
The Nuggets had a quiet offseason in order to build on a tested structure already in place, starting with Nikola Jokic, perhaps the best passing big man in the history of the league.
At just 24 years of age, it's relatively easy to assume that he is yet to reach his penultimate ceiling. At the center position, Jokic dropped a staggering line of 20 PPG, 7 APG, AND 11 RPG in his 2018-19 campaign, ranking third in box plus/minus (9.5), just behind MVP finalists Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden, all while leading his Nuggets team to their best regular season record since the 2012-13 season.
Nikola Jokic is the NBA's quietest superstar. Despite his world-class playmaking ability and flashy dime drops that would rank in the elite level for a point guard, let alone a center, the doughy Jokic carries himself both composedly and focused, with a creative, yet somewhat awkward attitude reminiscent of Hall-of-Famer Tim Duncan.
But more than anything else, Jokic sees the floor like no other at his position. He can effortlessly switch between playing both the roll man and ball handler in a pick-and-roll action. He manipulates the defense like an elite point guard would - diving into the post using step through head fakes and faking floaters that materialize into lobs for cutting roll men. Double team him from a single man coverage, and he'll fake you out of the air by analyzing passing routes in the half-court before dropping a nifty bounce pass towards the rim. Play the passing lanes strong in hopes of getting a deflection, and he'll abuse you with crafty post fakes before settling on a strong hook shot. He remains the only player at the center position to rack up more than 15 assists in a game within the past 30 years (and in NBA history if you don't count Wilt Chamberlain).
For this Nuggets' core group, the sky is the limit. Since briefly falling out of the playoff picture, the Denver front office successfully molded a balanced and complementary roster around Jokic, whom the team selected at pick #41 in perhaps the biggest draft steal of the decade. Blending a development of young homegrown talent in Jamal Murray and Gary Harris with adept veteran leadership in Will Barton and former All-Star Paul Millsap, the Nuggets positioned themselves into an ideal timeline given the current shape of their adversaries throughout the league.
Having just agreed to a five-year max extension with the team, the 22-year-old Murray made a name for himself this past year running a dangerous screen-and-roll action with Jokic. Whether it was executing acrobatic finishes, pulling up and hitting from 35 feet out, or grinding the gears of his opponents with aggravating on-court idiosyncrasies, Murray established himself in the mix of upcoming star guards. He's also proven that he can step up in high-pressure moments as evident by his first playoff series against the Spurs. His backcourt mate, Gary Harris, had his season cut short due to a series of small persisting injuries, but continues to rise in two-way skill each year when healthy. And with acquiring young springy forward Jerami Grant for next to nothing, expect even more fast-break opportunities and alley-oop highlight reels.
In spite of their respective injury concerns, attaining low-risk, high-reward prospects in Michael Porter Jr. and Bol Bol adds some extra flair to a team that is otherwise established in their stylistic identity. In their respective draft classes, Porter Jr. and Bol both ranked top-four in ESPN's highest 100 high school basketball recruits before injuries that derailed their college careers; and for Porter Jr., his rookie season, as well. But if potential comes out victorious in the battle of prospective player projection, we could be looking at some more draft-day heroics from the Nuggets' scouting department.
After a successful regular season showing, Denver's postseason was anything but overachieving, falling short in seven games to Portland in the second round. Nonetheless, they established themselves as a surefire 50-win juggernaut in the West for years to come.
If Jokic continues to mesh with the pieces around him and brings out the very best in his young backcourt tandem, the Nuggets can conquer the postseason hump and surprise the basketball world even more.
Maybe part of that surprise is Nikola Jokic capturing the NBA's Most Valuable Player Award.
Comments